Muslim Threat Index
By Bernie on 02 Sep 2009:
For the average infidel in the western world it is extremely difficult to determine which of the 48 Muslim Majority countries in the world represents the greatest danger to civilization. Afghanistan has the Taliban, Lebanon has Hezbollah, Egypt has Al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya, Algeria has the 'the al-Qaeda Organization of the Islamic Maghreb,' Iran is looking to get nuclear weapons, Pakistan already has the bomb, which countries should we be worried about?
As a public service I have devised Planck's Islamic Threat Equation, a Muslim threat index to help government security agencies, NGOs, and others to quantify the danger of various Muslim majority countries and the likelihood that those countries may directly or indirectly support an attack against America or Europe. Also one should consider Islamic regimes that make their populace so miserable that they force huge numbers of Muslims to emigrate (which is a direct threat to the host countries) or make them so angry they turn to terrorism.
Here is the formula: MTI (Muslim Threat Index) = [ (100 * Atp * At)/M + (Pp*GDp) + MSp + MPp + SRp] * NC
where Atp is Active Troop points;
At is Number of troops;
M is the number of Muslims in the country
Atp | At=Number of active Troops |
0 | 0-9,999 |
1 | 10,000-99,999 |
2 | 100,000-249,999 |
4 | 250,000-499,999 |
8 | 500,000+ |
Pp is Population Points (too small and too big a population are both most dangerous)
Pp | Population |
1 | 5-49.9 million |
2 | 50-99.9 million |
4 | 0-4.9 million |
8 | 100+million |
MSp Is Main Sect Points (Where neither Sunni nor Shia predominate the more likely for sectarian instability)
MSp | Main-Sect |
0 | Sunni |
4 | Shia |
8 | Sunni/Shia |
MPp is Muslim Percentage Points (the greater the percentage the greater the intolerance of other religions)
MPp | Muslim-Percentage |
0 | 50%-59.99% |
1 | 60%-89.99% |
2 | 90%-97.99% |
4 | 98%-99.7% |
8 | 99.8%-100% |
SRp is State Religion Points
State Religion means Islam the official religion where Sharia courts may be used
Secular: Officially neutral in matters of religion, neither supporting nor opposing any particular religion
None means that the country's status has not yet been declared - until resolved more dangerous than Secular
state
Islamic State means Strict Shariah Law
SRp | Religion&State |
0 | Secular |
2 | StateReligion |
4 | None |
8 | IslamicState |
GDp is Gross Domestic Product per capita points
GDp | GDP-US$ |
0 | 20,000+ |
1 | 12,000-19,999 |
2 | 5,000-11,999 |
4 | 2,500-4,999 |
8 | 0-2,499 |
Pp*GDp is population points times (Gross Domestic Product per capita points)
One will notice that a very high GDP will drive high population numbers to 0 on the principle that the higher the GDP the less likely the populace is to engage in terrorism.
NC= Nuclear Capability
NC=1 no nukes
NC=2 Acquiring Nuclear Capability (Iran)
NC=4 Has Nukes (Pakistan)
Here are the results with the most dangerous countries at the top with the highest threat index.
Country | Pop (mil) | % Muslim | Main Sect | Govt Type | Active Troops | GDP Per Capita US$ | Threat Level |
Pakistan | 172.8 | 97.0 | Sunni | Islamic state | 528,000 | 2,592 | 180 |
Nigeria | 146.2 | 50.0 | Sunni | None | 78,500 | 2,035 | 68 |
Bangladesh | 162.2 | 89.0 | Sunni | State Religion | 120,000 | 1,378 | 67 |
Iran | 70.5 | 98.0 | Shi'a | Islamic state | 545,000 | 10,624 | 52 |
Mauritania | 3.1 | 100.0 | Sunni | Islamic state | 15,750 | 2,008 | 49 |
Indonesia | 228.5 | 86.1 | Sunni | None | 316,000 | 3,725 | 38 |
Comoros | 0.8 | 98.0 | Sunni | State religion | 0 | 1,125 | 38 |
Kosovo | 2.1 | 90.0 | Sunni | Secular | 0 | 1,800 | 34 |
The Gambia | 1.7 | 90.0 | Sunni | Secular | 800 | 1,326 | 34 |
Djibouti | 0.5 | 94.0 | Sunni | Secular | 9,850 | 2,271 | 34 |
Maldives | 0.3 | 99.8 | Sunni | State religion | 1,000 | 4,604 | 26 |
Eritrea | 5.0 | 60.0 | Sunni | None | 202,000 | 773 | 26 |
Lebanon | 4.2 | 60.0 | Sunni/Shi' | None | 72,100 | 11,270 | 24 |
Palestine | 4.1 | 95.0 | Sunni | None | 0 | 2,900 | 22 |
Yemen | 23.0 | 99.0 | Sunni/Shi' | Islamic state | 65,000 | 2,335 | 20 |
Somalia | 9.5 | 99.9 | Sunni | State religion | 10,000 | 600 | 18 |
Saudi Arabia | 27.6 | 100.0 | Sunni | Islamic state | 199,500 | 23,243 | 17 |
Turkey | 71.5 | 99.8 | Sunni | Secular | 514,850 | 12,888 | 16 |
Syria | 19.4 | 90.0 | Sunni | None | 296,000 | 4,448 | 13 |
Sierra Leone | 6.2 | 60.0 | Sunni | None | 13,000 | 692 | 13 |
Afghanistan | 32.7 | 99.0 | Sunni | Islamic state | 70,000 | 724 | 12 |
Iraq | 28.2 | 97.0 | Shi'a | State religion | 254,418 | 3,600 | 12 |
Egypt | 77.1 | 90.0 | Sunni | State religion | 450,000 | 5,491 | 11 |
Niger | 13.2 | 90.0 | Sunni | Secular | 5,300 | 666 | 10 |
Mali | 12.0 | 90.0 | Sunni | Secular | 7,350 | 1,031 | 10 |
Senegal | 11.6 | 94.0 | Sunni | Secular | 9,400 | 1,685 | 10 |
Tajikistan | 7.2 | 97.0 | Sunni | Secular | 6,000 | 1,841 | 10 |
Jordan | 5.5 | 95.0 | Sunni | state religion | 100,700 | 4,886 | 10 |
Guinea | 10.2 | 85.0 | Sunni | Secular | 9,700 | 1,074 | 9 |
Azerbaijan | 8.6 | 93.4 | Shi'a | Secular | 95,000 | 7,656 | 9 |
Kyrgyzstan | 5.3 | 75.0 | Sunni | Secular | 12,500 | - | 9 |
Chad | 5.0 | 54.0 | Sunni | Secular | 30,350 | 1,675 | 9 |
Bahrain | 1.0 | 81.0 | Shi'a | State religion | 11,200 | 32,604 | 8 |
Burkina Faso | 13.2 | 50.0 | Sunni | Secular | 6,000 | 1,253 | 8 |
Tunisia | 10.3 | 98.0 | Sunni | State religion | 35,000 | 7,473 | 8 |
Morocco | 33.7 | 99.0 | Sunni | State religion | 196,300 | 4,076 | 7 |
Algeria | 33.7 | 99.0 | Sunni | State religion | 127,500 | 6,538 | 7 |
Sudan | 39.3 | 70.0 | Sunni | None | 104,500 | 2,172 | 6 |
Oman | 2.5 | 93.0 | Ibadi | State religion | 41,700 | 23,967 | 6 |
Libya | 6.1 | 97.0 | Sunni | State religion | 76,000 | 12,277 | 6 |
Qatar | 0.7 | 77.5 | Sunni | State religion | 12,400 | 80,870 | 5 |
Kuwait | 3.4 | 85.0 | Sunni | State religion | 15,500 | 39,305 | 4 |
Malaysia | 27.7 | 60.4 | Sunni | State religion | 110,000 | 13,315 | 4 |
United Arab Emirates | 5.4 | 76.0 | Sunni | State religion | 50,500 | 37,293 | 4 |
Turkmenistan | 5.1 | 89.0 | Sunni | Secular | 26,000 | 5,154 | 4 |
Brunei | 0.3 | 67.0 | Sunni | State religion | 7,000 | 51,005 | 3 |
Uzbekistan | 27.3 | 88.0 | Sunni | Secular | 53,000 | 2,344 | 1 |
Kazakhstan | 15.2 | 57.0 | Sunni | Secular | 65,800 | 11,086 | 1 |
I would like to point out that any Islamic country with a threat index of zero is not threat to anyone.
For more of my articles like this see Islam
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