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Billionaire Ray Dalio: 50-50 Chance of World War
By Charlie McCarthy | Friday, 13 October 2023 11:24 AM EDT
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said there's a 50-50 chance a world war will break out in light of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
"In my opinion, this war has a high risk of leading to several other conflicts of different types in a number of places, and it is likely to have harmful effects that will extend beyond those in Israel and Gaza," Dalio wrote in an essay titled "Another Step Toward International War," which he posted Thursday on LinkedIn.
"Primarily for those reasons, it appears to me that the odds of transitioning from the contained conflicts to a more uncontained hot world war that includes the major powers have risen from 35% to about 50% over the last two years."
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Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, cautioned that the U.S. and China are "at the brink" of a so-called hot war.
"Fortunately, the progression toward a world war between the biggest powers (the US and China) has not yet crossed the irreversible line from being containable (which it is now) to becoming a brutal war between the biggest powers and their allies," he wrote.
"If these major powers do have direct fighting with each other, in which one side kills a significant number of people on the other side, we will see the transition from contained pre-hot-war conflicts to a brutal World War III."
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Dalio, considered an expert in global power shifts, said the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars likely will be "brutal until the end," when one side emerges as the clear victory. He added that such conflicts are "more likely to spread than subside."
"If they spread to other countries, most importantly the major countries, there will be a much more horrific hot world war," Dalio said. "It seems to me that the Israel-Hamas war is another classic, unfortunate step toward a more violent and encompassing international war."
Dalio posted his article as Israel's military prepared to initiate a ground assault into Gaza.
Israel has vowed to eliminate Hamas, which attacked Israel during the weekend. More than 1,300 people in Israel, including 247 soldiers, have been killed. The ensuing Israeli bombardment has killed more than 1,530 people in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry.
"Hopefully the horrific and tragic images we are all seeing will encourage restraint," Dalio said. "However, it is very likely the case that the images of civilian casualties we are seeing now and will see during an escalating war in Gaza will lead to new conflicts both between countries and within countries (e.g., repulsive violence against Jewish and Muslim populations in many countries)."
The Associated Press contributed to this story.
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Charlie McCarthy ✉
Charlie McCarthy, a writer/editor at Newsmax, has nearly 40 years of experience covering news, sports, and politics.
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